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X-WR-CALNAME;VALUE=TEXT:Climate Seminar: "Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal atmospheric circulation variability"
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SUMMARY:Climate Seminar: "Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal atmospheric circulation variability"
DESCRIPTION:<p>Speaker: <a href="http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/" data-url="http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/">Dr. Clara Deser (NCAR/UCAR)</a></p><p>Abstract:</p><p>This talk will highlight the relative importance of internally-generated vs. externally-forced climate trends at local and regional scales over North America and Eurasia based on a 30-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model over the period 1920-2100. Each member is subject to the same historical and future (RCP8.5) radiative forcing scenario, but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Unpredictable, intrinsic variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation strongly influences the pattern, magnitude and polarity of surface air temperature and precipitation trends in any single simulation, despite the common radiative forcing. Implications for model validation, inter-model comparisons, and interpretation of observed climate trends will be discussed.</p><p></p><p></p>
LOCATION:Haller Hall (GM 102)
STATUS:CONFIRMED
DTSTART:20150428T190000Z
DTEND:20150428T200000Z
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