Special Climate Seminar: "Predicting rainfall change under global warming: New challenge for atmosphere-ocean dynamics"

Date: 

Wednesday, October 14, 2015, 4:00pm to 5:00pm

Location: 

Haller Hall (Geology Museum 102)

Speaker: Shang-Ping Xie (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

Abstract:

Global mean temperature has risen for the past century and is projected to rise even more in response to the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Precipitation change is of vital importance to societies but precipitation projections are intrinsically challenging as they change sign from one region to another. Recent studies show that in the tropics, radiatively forced changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation are tightly coupled to spatial patterns of ocean surface warming. Mechanisms identified for ocean warming pattern formation include those important in natural variability such as Bjerknes and WES feedbacks but there are also mechanisms unique to climate change such as the dynamic thermostat due to the equatorial upwelling. Developing predictive understanding of ocean-atmosphere coupling holds the key to building confidence in regional climate projections, much as in the historical development of El Nino prediction. The talk examines the interactions between radiatively forced changes in the ocean and atmosphere, and discusses the implications for regional climate change.